Individuals protest a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for municipal staff on Oct. 28 in New York Metropolis. Polling, vaccination and mortality information all counsel that Republicans are the largest group of unvaccinated Individuals and are struggling the worst penalties because of this. David Dee Delgado/Getty Photographs conceal caption

Individuals protest a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for municipal staff on Oct. 28 in New York Metropolis. Polling, vaccination and mortality information all counsel that Republicans are the largest group of unvaccinated Individuals and are struggling the worst penalties because of this.

Since Could 2021, individuals residing in counties that voted closely for Donald Trump over the last presidential election have been almost 3 times as more likely to die from COVID-19 as those that reside in areas that went for now-President Biden. That is in line with a brand new evaluation by NPR that examines how political polarization and misinformation are driving a major share of the deaths within the pandemic.


NPR checked out deaths per 100,000 individuals in roughly 3,000 counties throughout the U.S. from Could 2021, the purpose at which vaccinations broadly grew to become accessible. Individuals residing in counties that went 60% or increased for Trump in November 2020 had 2.7 occasions the loss of life charges of people who went for Biden. Counties with a fair increased share of the vote for Trump noticed increased COVID-19 mortality charges.

The pattern was strong, even when controlling for age, which is the first demographic threat of COVID-19 mortality. The info additionally reveal a significant contributing issue to the loss of life charge distinction: The upper the vote share for Trump, the decrease the vaccination charge.

The evaluation solely seemed on the geographic location of COVID-19 deaths. The precise political beliefs of every individual taken by the illness stays unknowable. However the power of the affiliation, mixed with polling details about vaccination, strongly means that Republicans are being disproportionately affected.

Latest polling information that present Republicans at the moment are the most important group of unvaccinated people in the USA, greater than every other single demographic group. Polling additionally exhibits that distrust in official sources of knowledge and publicity to misinformation, about each COVID-19 and the vaccines, run excessive amongst Republicans.

« An unvaccinated individual is 3 times as more likely to lean Republican as they’re to lean Democrat, » says Liz Hamel, vp of public opinion and survey analysis on the Kaiser Household Basis, a nonpartisan well being coverage suppose tank that tracks attitudes towards vaccination. Political affiliation is now the strongest indicator of whether or not somebody is vaccinated, she says: « If I needed to guess if anyone was vaccinated or not and I may solely know one factor about them, I might most likely ask what their get together affiliation is. »

It was not all the time this manner. Earlier within the pandemic, many alternative teams expressed hesitancy towards getting vaccinated. African Individuals, youthful Individuals and rural Individuals all had important parts of their demographic that resisted vaccination. However over time, the vaccination charges in these demographics have risen, whereas the speed of Republican vaccination in opposition to COVID-19 has flatlined at simply 59%, in line with the most recent numbers from Kaiser. By comparability, 91% of Democrats are vaccinated.


Being unvaccinated will increase the danger of loss of life from COVID-19 dramatically, in line with the CDC. The overwhelming majority of deaths since Could, round 150,000, have occurred among the many unvaccinated, says Peter Hotez, dean for the Nationwide Faculty of Tropical Medication at Baylor Faculty of Medication.

Whereas vaccine hesitancy exists in many alternative teams, Hotez suspects that the deaths are « overwhelmingly » concentrated in additional politically conservative communities. « How does this make sense at any degree? » he asks.

The implications for people are actual. Mark Valentine nonetheless remembers when his brother known as him to inform him he had contracted coronavirus. Valentine is a trial marketing consultant in North Carolina. His brother Phil, 61, was a widely known conservative discuss present host in Nashville, Tenn., who typically expressed skepticism about vaccination.

Conservative discuss radio host Phil Valentine (proper), pictured along with his brother, Mark (second from left). Phil had been skeptical about COVID and the COVID vaccines, generally mocking them on his discuss present. Earlier this 12 months, he contracted the virus and died. Courtesy of Mark Valentine conceal caption

Conservative discuss radio host Phil Valentine (proper), pictured along with his brother, Mark (second from left). Phil had been skeptical about COVID and the COVID vaccines, generally mocking them on his discuss present. Earlier this 12 months, he contracted the virus and died.

Neither brother was vaccinated, and neither one was notably frightened about Phil’s optimistic outcome. His brother stated he was making an attempt a number of various therapies generally promoted in conservative circles. « He stated, ‘I’ve acquired the ivermectin, I began it this morning, and I do not suppose it will be an enormous deal,’  » Mark Valentine recollects. « And albeit I did not give it some thought anymore. »

However per week later, Mark stated he acquired a name from his brother’s spouse saying that the 2 had been going to the hospital. « Earlier than I knew it, he was in there and I could not get to him, could not discuss to him, » Valentine recollects. « His state of affairs took a nosedive like you possibly can’t imagine. »

Phil Valentine died in August about 5 weeks after he introduced he had examined optimistic for COVID-19.

Misinformation seems to be a significant component within the lagging vaccination charges. The Kaiser Household Basis’s polling exhibits Republicans are way more more likely to imagine false statements about COVID-19 and vaccines. A full 94% of Republicans suppose a number of false statements about COVID-19 and vaccines is perhaps true, and 46% imagine 4 or extra statements is perhaps true. In contrast, solely 14% of Democrats imagine 4 or extra false statements concerning the illness.


Perception in a number of false statements extremely correlates with vaccination standing, Hamel says. « When you imagine that the vaccines can injury your fertility, that they comprise a microchip and that the federal government is inflating the variety of COVID-19 deaths, you are going to suppose actually otherwise about whether or not to get vaccinated. »

Maybe essentially the most pernicious items of misinformation need to do with the perceived severity of COVID-19 itself. Essentially the most broadly believed false assertion was: « The federal government is exaggerating the variety of COVID-19 deaths. »

Hamel says that underestimating the severity of COVID-19 seems to be a significant purpose why Republicans specifically have fallen behind in vaccination: « We have seen decrease ranges of non-public fear amongst Republicans who stay unvaccinated, » she says. « That is an actual distinction with what we noticed in communities of colour, the place there was a excessive degree of fear about getting sick. »

Complacency across the dangers of contracting COVID-19 actually appeared to be a significant purpose why the Valentine brothers prevented vaccination. Whereas not conspiracy theorists, they had been staunch Trump supporters. The arrival of coronavirus simply forward of the presidential election of 2020 appeared like « essentially the most fortuitous pandemic within the historical past of the world » for the Democratic Occasion, recollects Mark.

Regardless of the media protection, Phil Valentine did not imagine COVID-19 was critical so long as you had been wholesome: « He stated, ‘The chance of me getting it’s low. Within the unlikely occasion that I do get it, the chance that I’ll survive it’s 99-plus %,’  » Mark Valentine recollects.

Vaccine researcher Peter Hotez is deeply troubled by the present state of affairs. A winter surge in COVID-19 instances is brewing, and the newly found omicron variant has the potential to make issues far worse.

He thinks the weather of the Republican Occasion which are endorsing anti-vaccine concepts must take an enormous step again. « I am not making an attempt to vary Republican pondering or far-right pondering, » he says. « I am making an attempt to say: ‘The anti-science would not belong; it would not match. … Simply cease it and save lives.’  »

Earlier than his sickness, Phil Valentine had generally promoted unproven various therapies and brought a mocking tone towards vaccination. As his state of affairs deteriorated, Mark says the discuss present host realized he wanted to encourage his listeners to get vaccinated. Phil instructed his brother, « ‘My worry is that as a result of I did not get it, folks might not get it, » Mark Valentine recollects. The household put out an announcement in help of vaccination, and Mark went on to his brother’s discuss present to encourage listeners to take the shot.

He additionally headed to his native Walmart to get vaccinated. « The man comes out; he stated, ‘Do you could have any questions or issues?’  » Mark Valentine recollects. « I stated, ‘Hell yeah, I’ve acquired each, however do it anyway.’ « 


Vaccination charge information are the speed of vaccination amongst all individuals 18 years of age or older, as of Nov. 30. They’re from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention.

COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 residents are calculated by dividing the deaths from COVID-19 in a county since Could 1 by the county’s inhabitants. County inhabitants information come from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 decennial census. Could 1 was chosen as the beginning date of our evaluation as a result of that’s roughly the time when vaccines grew to become universally accessible to adults ages 18 and older. COVID-19 loss of life information is collected by the Middle for Techniques Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins College and is present as of Nov. 30.

2020 election outcome information are from MIT Election Knowledge and Science Lab.

Alaska doesn’t report election outcomes by county-equivalent space, so it’s excluded from the evaluation. Nebraska is excluded from the evaluation as a result of doesn’t report county-level COVID-19 statistics. Hawaii is excluded as a result of it doesn’t report county-level vaccine information. Some counties which have reported no COVID-19 deaths since Could 1 might have stopped reporting. These counties usually have very small populations and have a negligible influence on the weighted averages. Erring on the facet of warning, we embrace all information except it’s recognized that they’re in error.

All averages are weighted by county inhabitants. The general common represents the typical of the three,011 counties included within the evaluation.

NPR’s Huo Jingnan contributed to this story.


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